Predicting environmental factors influencing crop raiding by African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Luangwa Valley, eastern Zambia

Elephant crop raiding is pervasive and widespread in elephant-agriculture landscapes. Due to rare investigations on underlying African elephant (Loxodonta africana) crop raiding processes and patterns, neither reliable predictive models nor empirical evidence on elephant crop raiding parameters are available or adequate to support intervening decisions by susceptible farmers and other stakeholders. By developing predictive models of binary logistic regression and employing questionnaire surveys, we examined the environmental factors influencing occurrence of crop raiding by interrogating effectiveness of counter-measures implemented by local farmers in Luangwa Valley, eastern Zambia. Farm sizes, vegetation types in peripherals of crop fields and types of counter-measures used by local farmers to restrain marauding elephants were the most important elephant crop raiding predictors. Smaller crop fields (.4782.00 } 342.00 m2) were more vulnerable than larger ones. Most crop fields (75.88%, n=236) surrounded by Brachystegia and Acacia dominated vegetation communities were damaged, largely due to high tree fruiting which were elephant attractants. Solar powered electric fences were more effective than other counter-measures. Though traditional methods were prevalent, they were less effective than other counter-measures. It was posited that additional capacity development of local farmers was required particularly, in participatory integrative land use practices to minimize elephant crop raiding.Key words: Predictive models, elephant crop raiding, conservation, Luangwa Valley, Zambia

The differential hormonal milieu of morning versus evening, may have an impact on muscle hypertrophic potential

Substantial gains in muscle strength and hypertrophy are clearly associated with the routine performance of resistance training. What is less evident is the optimal timing of the resistance training stimulus to elicit these significant functional and structural skeletal muscle changes. Therefore, this investigation determined the impact of a single bout of resistance training performed either in the morning or evening upon acute anabolic signalling (insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3), myogenic index and differentiation) and catabolic processes (cortisol). Twenty-four male participants (age 21.4±1.9yrs, mass 83.7±13.7kg) with no sustained resistance training experience were allocated to a resistance exercise group (REP). Sixteen of the 24 participants were randomly selected to perform an additional non-exercising control group (CP) protocol. REP performed two bouts of resistance exercise (80% 1RM) in the morning (AM: 0800 hrs) and evening (PM: 1800 hrs), with the sessions separated by a minimum of 72 hours. Venous blood was collected immediately prior to, and 5 min after, each resistance exercise and control sessions. Serum cortisol and IGFBP-3 levels, myogenic index, myotube width, were determined at each sampling period. All data are reported as mean ± SEM, statistical significance was set at P≤0.05. As expected a significant reduction in evening cortisol concentration was observed at pre (AM: 98.4±10.5, PM: 49.8±4.4 ng/ml, P0.05). Timing of resistance training regimen in the evening appears to augment some markers of hypertrophic potential, with elevated IGFBP-3, suppressed cortisol and a superior cellular environment. Further investigation, to further elucidate the time course of peak anabolic signalling in morning vs evening training conditions, are timely

Behavioral states may be associated with distinct spatial patterns in electrocorticogram

To determine if behavioral states are associated with unique spatial electrocorticographic (ECoG) patterns, we obtained recordings with a microgrid electrode array applied to the cortical surface of a human subject. The array was constructed with the intent of extracting maximal spatial information by optimizing interelectrode distances. A 34-year-old patient with intractable epilepsy underwent intracranial ECoG monitoring after standard methods failed to reveal localization of seizures. During the 8-day period of invasive recording, in addition to standard clinical electrodes a square 1 × 1 cm microgrid array with 64 electrodes (1.25 mm separation) was placed on the right inferior temporal gyrus. Careful review of video recordings identified four extended naturalistic behaviors: reading, conversing on the telephone, looking at photographs, and face-to-face interactions. ECoG activity recorded with the microgrid that corresponded to these behaviors was collected and ECoG spatial patterns were analyzed. During periods of ECoG selected for analysis, no electrographic seizures or epileptiform patterns were present. Moments of maximal spatial variance are shown to cluster by behavior. Comparisons between conditions using a permutation test reveal significantly different spatial patterns for each behavior. We conclude that ECoG recordings obtained on the cortical surface with optimal high spatial frequency resolution reveal distinct local spatial patterns that reflect different behavioral states, and we predict that similar patterns will be found in many if not most cortical areas on which a microgrid is placed

A pilot randomised controlled trial of personalised care for depressed patients with symptomatic coronary heart disease in South London general practices: the UPBEAT-UK RCT protocol and recruitment.

ABSTRACT: Background: Community studies reveal people with coronary heart disease (CHD) are twice as likely to be depressed as the general population and that this co-morbidity negatively affects the course and outcome of both conditions. There is evidence for the efficacy of collaborative care and case management for depression treatment, and whilst NICE guidelines recommend these approaches only where depression has not responded to psychological, pharmacological, or combined treatments, these care approaches may be particularly relevant to the needs of people with CHD and depression in the earlier stages of stepped care in primary care settings. Methods: This pilot randomised controlled trial will evaluate whether a simple intervention involving a personalised care plan, elements of case management and regular telephone review is a feasible and acceptable intervention that leads to better mental and physical health outcomes for these patients. The comparator group will be usual general practitioner (GP) care. 81 participants have been recruited from CHD registers of 15 South London general practices. Eligible participants have probable major depression identified by a score of ≥8 on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression subscale (HADS-D) together with symptomatic CHD identified using the Modified Rose Angina Questionnaire. Consenting participants are randomly allocated to usual care or the personalised care intervention which involves a comprehensive assessment of each participant’s physical and mental health needs which are documented in a care plan, followed by regular telephone reviews by the case manager over a 6-month period. At each review, the intervention participant’s mood, function and identified problems are reviewed and the case manager uses evidence based behaviour change techniques to facilitate achievement of goals specified by the patient with the aim of increasing the patient’s self efficacy to solve their problems. Depressive symptoms measured by HADS score will be collected at baseline and 1, 6- and 12 months post randomisation. Other outcomes include CHD symptoms, quality of life, wellbeing and health service utilisation. Discussion: This practical and patient-focused intervention is potentially an effective and accessible approach to the health and social care needs of people with depression and CHD in primary care. Trial registration: ISRCTN21615909

Global Production of Marine Bivalves. Trends and Challenges

The global production of marine bivalves for human consumption is more than 15 million tonnes per year (average period 2010–2015), which is about 14% of the total marine production in the world. Most of the marine bivalve production (89%) comes from aquaculture and only 11% comes from the wild fishery. Asia, especially China, is by far the largest producer of marine bivalves, accounting for 85% of the world production and responsible for the production growth. In other continents, the production is stabilizing or decreasing (Europe) the last decades. In order to stimulate growth, sustainability (Planet, Profit, People) of the aquaculture activities is a key issue. Environmental (Planet) aspects for sustainable aquaculture include the fishery on seed resources, carrying capacity, invasive species and organic loading. Food safety issues due to environmental contaminants and biotoxines should be minimized to increase the reliability of marine bivalves as a healthy food source and to stimulate market demands. Properly designed monitoring programs are important tools to accomplish sustainable growth of marine bivalve production

Temporal and spatial patterns of bovine Escherichia coli O157 prevalence and comparison of temporal changes in the patterns of phage types associated with bovine shedding and human E. coli O157 cases in Scotland between 1998-2000 and 2002-2004

Background: Escherichia coli O157 is an important cause of acute diarrhoea, haemorrhagic colitis and, especially in children, haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). Incidence rates for human E. coli O157 infection in Scotland are higher than most other United Kingdom, European and North American countries. Cattle are considered the main reservoir for E. coli O157. Significant associations between livestock related exposures and human infection have been identified in a number of studies. Results: Animal Studies: There were no statistically significant differences (P = 0.831) in the mean farm-level prevalence between the two studies (SEERAD: 0.218 (95% CI: 0.141-0.32); IPRAVE: 0.205 (95% CI: 0.135-0.296)). However, the mean pat-level prevalence decreased from 0.089 (95% CI: 0.075-0.105) to 0.040 (95% CI: 0.028-0.053) between the SEERAD and IPRAVE studies respectively (P < 0.001). Highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in mean pat-level prevalence were also observed in the spring, in the North East and Central Scotland, and in the shedding of phage type (PT) 21/28. Human Cases: Contrasting the same time periods, there was a decline in the overall comparative annual reported incidence of human cases as well as in all the major PT groups except 'Other' PTs. For both cattle and humans, the predominant phage type between 1998 and 2004 was PT21/28 comprising over 50% of the positive cattle isolates and reported human cases respectively. The proportion of PT32, however, was represented by few (<5%) of reported human cases despite comprising over 10% of cattle isolates. Across the two studies there were differences in the proportion of PTs 21/28, 32 and 'Other' PTs in both cattle isolates and reported human cases; however, only differences in the cattle isolates were statistically significant (P = 0.002). Conclusion: There was no significant decrease in the mean farm-level prevalence of E. coli O157 between 1998 and 2004 in Scotland, despite significant declines in mean pat-level prevalence. Although there were declines in the number of human cases between the two study periods, there is no statistically significant evidence that the overall rate (per 100,000 population) of human E. coli O157 infections in Scotland over the last 10 years has altered. Comparable patterns in the distribution of PTs 21/28 and 32 between cattle and humans support a hypothesized link between the bovine reservoir and human infections. This emphasizes the need to apply and improve methods to reduce bovine shedding of E. coli O157 in Scotland where rates appear higher in both cattle and human populations, than in other countrie

Patient allocations in general practice in case of patients' preferences for gender of doctor and their unavailability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In some countries every citizen has the right to obtain a designated general practitioner. However, each individual may have preferences that cannot be fulfilled due to shortages of some kind. The questions raised in this paper are: To what extent can we expect that preferences are fulfilled when the patients "compete" for entry on the lists of practitioners? What changes can we expect under changing conditions? A particular issue explored in the paper is when the majority of women prefer a female doctor and there is a shortage of female doctors.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>The analysis is done on the macro level by the so called gravity model and on the micro level by recent theories of benefit efficient population behaviour, partly developed by two of the authors. A major finding is that the number of patients wanting a doctor of the underrepresented gender is less important than the strength of their preferences as determining factor for the benefit efficient allocation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We were able to generate valuable insights to the questions asked and to the dynamics of benefit efficient allocations. The approach is quite general and can be applied in a variety of contexts.</p

Modeling Checkpoint-Based Movement with the Earth Mover's Distance

Movement data comes in various forms, including trajectory data and checkpoint data. While trajectories give detailed information about the movement of individual entities, checkpoint data in its simplest form does not give identities, just counts at checkpoints. However, checkpoint data is of increasing interest since it is readily available due to privacy reasons and as a by-product of other data collection. In this paper we propose to use the Earth Mover’s Distance as a versatile tool to reconstruct individual movements or flow based on checkpoint counts at different times. We analyze the modeling possibilities and provide experiments that validate model predictions, based on coarse-grained aggregations of data about actual movements of couriers in London, UK. While we cannot expect to reconstruct precise individual movements from highly granular checkpoint data, the evaluation does show that the approach can generate meaningful estimates of object movements. B. Speckmann and K. Verbeek are supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) under project nos. 639.023.208 and 639.021.541, respectively. This paper arose from work initiated at Dagstuhl seminar 12512 “Representation, analysis and visualization of moving objects”, December 2012. The authors gratefully acknowledge Schloss Dagstuhl for their support

The Incremental Cooperative Design of Preventive Healthcare Networks

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Soheil Davari, 'The incremental cooperative design of preventive healthcare networks', Annals of Operations Research, first published online 27 June 2017. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 27 June 2018. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-017-2569-1.In the Preventive Healthcare Network Design Problem (PHNDP), one seeks to locate facilities in a way that the uptake of services is maximised given certain constraints such as congestion considerations. We introduce the incremental and cooperative version of the problem, IC-PHNDP for short, in which facilities are added incrementally to the network (one at a time), contributing to the service levels. We first develop a general non-linear model of this problem and then present a method to make it linear. As the problem is of a combinatorial nature, an efficient Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS) algorithm is proposed to solve it. In order to gain insight into the problem, the computational studies were performed with randomly generated instances of different settings. Results clearly show that VNS performs well in solving IC-PHNDP with errors not more than 1.54%.Peer reviewe

Motor Cortex Representation of the Upper-Limb in Individuals Born without a Hand

The body schema is an action-related representation of the body that arises from activity in a network of multiple brain areas. While it was initially thought that the body schema developed with experience, the existence of phantom limbs in individuals born without a limb (amelics) led to the suggestion that it was innate. The problem with this idea, however, is that the vast majority of amelics do not report the presence of a phantom limb. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) applied over the primary motor cortex (M1) of traumatic amputees can evoke movement sensations in the phantom, suggesting that traumatic amputation does not delete movement representations of the missing hand. Given this, we asked whether the absence of a phantom limb in the majority of amelics means that the motor cortex does not contain a cortical representation of the missing limb, or whether it is present but has been deactivated by the lack of sensorimotor experience. In four upper-limb amelic subjects we directly stimulated the arm/hand region of M1 to see 1) whether we could evoke phantom sensations, and 2) whether muscle representations in the two cortices were organised asymmetrically. TMS applied over the motor cortex contralateral to the missing limb evoked contractions in stump muscles but did not evoke phantom movement sensations. The location and extent of muscle maps varied between hemispheres but did not reveal any systematic asymmetries. In contrast, forearm muscle thresholds were always higher for the missing limb side. We suggest that phantom movement sensations reported by some upper limb amelics are mostly driven by vision and not by the persistence of motor commands to the missing limb within the sensorimotor cortex. We propose that prewired movement representations of a limb need the experience of movement to be expressed within the primary motor cortex